Autonomous vehicles will transform personal mobility by slashing the cost per mile relative to a traditional taxi, Uber, or personal car, according to ARK’s research. Here, we evaluate which firms will reap the benefits of a new market which promises to ramp from essentially $0 now to $10 trillion in global gross annual revenues by 2030.1
We expect four types of firms to get a cut of the estimated $0.352 in revenue per mile that autonomous taxis will charge: platform providers, lead generators, vehicle manufacturers, and owner/operators, as shown below. Some companies probably will benefit from more than one source of revenues.
Ready for a completely driverless taxi cab? Riders in the Phoenix area will have the chance to summon a fully autonomous, self-driving vehicle when Google’s Waymo launches its ride-sharing service later this year, the company announced.
Waymo launched a pilot program last year, but has until now relied on vehicles that still have “operators” ready to take control in an emergency. And volunteers got to use the service for free. With the approval of Arizona regulators, it will soon start charging riders who will be able to summon a vehicle using a smartphone app, much like competitors such as Uber and Lyft. Those new vans will operate driverlessly.
“As we continue to test-drive our fleet of vehicles in greater Phoenix, we’re taking all the steps necessary to launch our commercial service this year,” a Waymo spokesman said.
D.C. government is looking ahead on self-driving cars. On Monday, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser announced the creation of the city’s Interagency AV Working Group to explore an autonomous vehicle pilot program to “help benefit District residents and visitors.”
“We will keep the District on the cutting edge of autonomous vehicles and do so in a way that benefits our residents,” said Mayor Bowser in a statement. “Washington, D.C. is a creative, tech-savvy city, and as we grow, we will always be exploring and investing in innovation and finding ways to make it more inclusive.”
The working group is made up of representatives from across multiple city agencies.
Five years ago, when she was still an insurance broker with Marsh, Kate Sampson called insurance underwriters at American International Group (AIG) and other insurers with a new concept.
“I’m working with this company and this is what they’re going to do. They’re going to be the first in peer‑to‑peer ridesharing and everyone will have an app and you can share a ride with a stranger,” she told the underwriters.
Unless you live in a major city, it’s pretty well accepted that to participate in modern society, you need car. Cars are how we commute to our jobs, how visit our friends and how get out of town for rest and relaxation. But what if this weren’t the case? What if our private vehicles were replaced by subscription-based fleets of driverless cars? What would that do to our cities, and what would that do to our lives?
Although it might sound like science fiction to some, this reality is on the horizon. The technology is already here, it’s simply a matter of how quickly we’ll see it spread.